Amid growing friction with India, Pakistan is expected to ramp up its defence spending significantly over the next two to four years. A pattern of increased military expenditure during periods of heightened bilateral tension has been observed in previous years, according to a Moneycontrol analysis.
While India’s defence response has remained relatively restrained, Pakistan has consistently responded to escalations with sharp spikes in military spending. Historical data from the World Bank reveals this recurring trend.
For example, after the 2016 Uri surgical strikes by India, Pakistan's defence budget growth surged from single digits to 14.1 percent in 2017. The following year, in 2018, it soared to 17.5 percent—the highest annual increase in seven years.
This is not an isolated case. In the wake of the 2008 Mumbai terror attacks, Pakistan's defence budget rose sharply from 13.4 percent in 2008 to 17.1 percent in 2009. On average, defence spending grew by 17.4 percent annually between 2009 and 2012.
Even earlier, during the period following the Kargil conflict and the 2001 Indian Parliament attack, Pakistan increased its defence outlay by an average of 11.4 percent per year from 2000 to 2004. This was notably higher than the 6.6 percent annual growth seen in the five years prior.
Given the current geopolitical climate, a similar trajectory of elevated defence spending by Pakistan appears likely, potentially lasting up to four years.